讲座预告：国内城市人口流动研究：利用普查和调查数据比较发展中国家的城市流入人口的测量和估算结果
伟德国际集团系列讲座
2017年第18讲总第488讲
人口学研究系列讲座第2讲
主题：Understanding Internal Migration to Urban Areas: Comparison of Urban in-Migration Measures and Estimates based on Censuses and Surveys from the Developing World
国内城市人口流动研究：利用普查和调查数据比较发展中国家的城市流入人口的测量和估算结果
主讲人：Zhen Liu
美国布朗大学人口研究与培训中心（PSTC）
主持人：蒋耒文
伟德BETVlCTOR最新地址亚洲人口研究中心主任、美国国家大气研究中心科学家
讲座时间：2016年5月24日星期三, 10:00-11:30
讲座地点：校本部B417
讲座简介：
The literature on internal migration presents ambivalent measures of migration. The "migration-defining" spatial boundaries and time periods are often inconsistent among data collected in different countries which hinders meaningful cross-national comparisons, as well as among censuses and surveys collected for the same country which prevents consistent urban in-migration estimations useful for urban population estimation and projection. Using over 130 censuses from the IPUMS collection and nearly 200 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for more than 80 developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America collected from 1970s to 2015, this paper seeks to compare urban in-migration measures and estimates based on censuses and surveys from the developing world. The preliminary results suggest that surveys tend to provide much more liberal estimates of internal migration rates compared to censuses. Meanwhile, although censuses and surveys often produce different levels of urban in- migration estimates, they constantly show similar patterns of urban in-migration in relation to demographic characteristics such age and gender. Finally, this paper also presents empirical evidence on how different conclusions on educational selectivity of urban in-migrants might be drawn due to varied migration data sources and migration measures used.
人口迁移流动研究的文献指出，对人口流动的衡量存在许多矛盾和问题：各国在定义人口流动的地理边界和时间跨度方面往往不同，限制了国际间的对比研究；同一国家在不同普查和调查时采用的定义也经常变化，无法将这些城市人口迁移数据用于对城市人口的估计和预测。本文使用了130多个IPUMS的人口普查数据和近200个人口健康调查（DHS）数据对亚、非、拉美80多个发展中国家1970年以来的国内人口迁移情况进行研究，比较不同数据的测量方法及其估算结果的差别。初步研究结果表明，相比普查数据，采用不同调查数据得到的的人口迁移率差别较大。同时，虽然普查和调查数据经常给出不同水平的城市流入人口估计结果，但是这些数据都能得到、一致、相似的流动人口的年龄、性别模式。本文还通过实证研究显示，采用不同的数据来源和测量方法会得出关于城市流入人口教育选择性的不同结论。
主讲人简介：
Zhen Liu is currently a PhD candidate at Department of Sociology, Brown University. Before coming to Brown, she worked as a research associate at Institute of Demographic Research, City University of New York, and also a fellow of UN Population Council. Zhen Liu's main research interests include internal migration and urbanization in developing countries and also immigrant integration in the United States.
